Thursday, July 09, 2015

Football Betting 2015: Southeastern Conference Sports Handicapping Preview

None of the major sportsbooks have released divisional odds yet, but the odds to win the Southeastern Conference football title 2015 are posted. In the below video, Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy focuses on what bettors should look out for from both a spread and totals betting standpoint.
The SEC West preview is forthcoming, but here are the odds and some bullet points for the SEC East:Though the top two contenders are from the West: the state of Alabama in fact, Georgia is given the best chance from the inferior division at 5/1.In the video preview, the top sports betting expert in college football explains that with the dominant running game and improving defense, put a checkmark next to the Dawgs to be an UNDER team among other likely betting tendencies.Tennessee is next insofar as divisional contenders at 10/1.

The Vols go from hunter to hunted. Can QB Joshua Dobbs, who went from third in depth chart to star of rising SEC contender, show he is no fluke? It is a watershed year for Butch Davis’ squad with 17 starters back from 7-6 straight up team. Because they are everyone’s chic dark horse, look for them to be “predictably unpredictable,” further explained in the broadcast.

As far as linemakers are concerned, five of the six biggest long shots to win the SEC are from the East.
Will Missouri surprise for the third straight season? Oddsmakers give them minimal respect again at 18/1. They lost three starting WRs in consecutive years, leaving just 10 career catches among returnees. They have an unproven OL, however their LBs are very good. Pro gamblers see a regression to the mean, but HC Gary Pinkel has proven experts wrong, so keep an eye on them as money line underdogs.

The Will Muschamp experiment at Florida is over. The second coming of Ron Zook’s “defense wins” philosophy, the Gators were stout when the other team had the ball, but again we find out winning with defense requires a great offense. Of course Joe Duffy's Picks clients will miss one of our favorite head coaches to fade.The talent is still much stronger on defense, but the coaching upgrade alone will improve offensive production.

Tough to get a handle on O/U but coaching upgrade means the Gators will be sounder. At 30/1, despite the brand name, the Gators will be undervalued.South Carolina is also 30/1. USC lost QB Dylan Thompson, all-time single season passing leader topping many question marks on offense. Jon Hoke was brought in to improve defense as DC. It was a disaster last year, but not as bad as numbers indicate. Hence we look for the Cocks to often offer great value on the UNDER.

While Kentucky at 100/1 and Vanderbilt at 300/1 may offer little interest to the average fan, they present splendid value for top sports services and gamblers from Billy Walters picks on down as the film documents.

Tuesday, July 07, 2015

Home/Road Comparison Gives Sportsbooks a Splitting Headache

So often a square player believes he hits a goldmine in sports betting when he discovers a team or pitcher is substantially better at home than on the road. This may or may not prove to be a significant breakthrough because it may be within the range of the home field advantage already factored into the line.

Sharps know that the true find is when a pitcher or squad (in any sport) has a home/road dichotomy that is less than the mean. Such circumstances often isolate great situations to bet with the road team.

In betting with Marathonbet UK of course we have exploited conditions where the public prefers: squads that are much better at home. This is so often the case with young and inexperienced teams early in the season.

But when a hurler or lineup has similar home/road splits and in some cases are actually superior away from home, depending on other metrics, opportunity lies to either invest on them on the road and/or versus them at home.

For example, home field is generally worth three points in football and about the same or a notch more in basketball. Hence the net difference between home and road should be about six points. When betting with Marathonbet global the divergence over a significant number of games is only 1.4 points as an example, we have a highly potential for an angle to further explore.

Let there be no doubt, home/road splits can often benefit betting on hosts, but the deviation must be much more substantial. As an illustration, OffshoreInsiders.com’s Mike Godsey says a two-point difference favoring the road team is the equivalent of a 10-point difference pointing towards the home team in football and approximately in basketball.

Splits that value the road team are less pronounced and sneak under the radar. In addition, they often point towards the underdog, where value more often resides.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Free Sports Picks Daily, DFS Inside Information

What a great season for Joe Duffy’s Picks, always better than the rest of the world, but this year is even impressive by our standards. This is an actual premium pick released at OffshoreInsiders.com

CUBS (HAMMEL +115) LA Dodgers (Greinke)

The Dodgers are 2-6 the last eight for -8 units. Yes they lost eight units the last eight games. The Cubs are 10-5 the last 15. Going with NL home teams with a starting pitcher ERA of 3.70 against a pitcher with a WHIP Of 1.050 or better is +80.6 units.LA is -12.6 units on the road at 12-18, with the Cubs are 19-13 at home. Everyone knows how great Zach Greinke has been, but Jason Hammel has a 2.89 ERA and .976 WHIP in 13 starts despite his home games not exactly in a pitcher friendly ballpark.LA 1-7 road versus an opponent with a winning home record. The are a horrific 2-9 as favorites of 150 or less.
Some other top angles that apply today
  • Twins are 11-1 +12.5 units after consecutive games stranding five or fewer runners
  • Milwaukee over 12-1 at home versus an opponent with a bullpen WHIP of 1.250 or less in the last 15 games
  • Cleveland 6-16 -16.9 units at home to AL teams averaging 4.7 or fewer runs per game this year
  • Philadelphia over 10-0 on Tuesdays this season
  • Atlanta over 24-7 following a win
  • Mets 2-15 -14.3 units on the road to NL teams averaging 4.3 or fewer runs per game

Tonight’s best sports handicapper picks The fact Joe Duffy’s Picks is outperforming the rest of the industry is nothing new. It is par for the course. Now we are even outperforming ourselves. We win again (despite briefly marking up a loser as a winner, now corrected after logging into sportsbook and noticing). Of course the AL Central Underdog Game of the Year proves to be money in the bank. So, are you one of those who insist it is okay to be on the outside looking in?Now get the absolute best portfolio of the season. We have eight winners led by four, yes four Wise Guys.

This includes the MLB Game of the Month. Yes it is the strongest portfolio of the season. What, there is a favorite that has a .136 slugging percentage less in their last five games than their opponent. Which chalk is 36-92 under the situation that applies tonight? Oh we have an angle that has won 222.3 units and it applies several times today all at OffshoreInsiders.com

Monday, June 22, 2015

Peter Rose Lies Never Stop; Goodbye Reinstatement Hopes and Shut Up

It what should go down as the least surprising story of the day, ESPN’s Outside the Lines has obtained what is a smoking gun showing disgraced former Major League Pete Rose bet on baseball while as a player.

Most disturbingly, he bet “extensively” in games he played in.
However, there is no evidence that he ever bet against his own team either as a player or a manager.While many touts brag about betting large amounts on sporting events (a laughable marketing ploy argument blown out of the water by pros), Rose is proof that large bets are often square bets, once losing more than $15,000 in a single day during March Madness.Most baseball fans are oblivious to the fact that re-instatement of Rose would mean his election to the Hall-of-Fame. These are two separate subjects.

It was the belief of OffshoreInsiders.com that Rose would likely be re-instated to Major League Baseball posthumously, but would never come close to election to Cooperstown.Rose would only be eligible for enshrinement by the Veterans Committee, most members are considered adversarial to the all-time hits leader’s inclusion.

It is now the belief of OffshoreInsiders.com that the latest news will prove irrevocable and ensure Rose’s permanent banishment.
We look forward to opinion polls likely to come out soon to see how many Pete Rose apologists remain hard-core.

Sunday, June 14, 2015

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB Notes; Cavs-Warriors Game 5 Betting Inside Information

Joe Duffy’s Picks is both the winningest all-time handicapper and the hottest in the world. He has his biggest portfolio since college basketball season and a free premium pick below. But first it is Game 5 of the NBA finals with Cleveland at Golden State.The Warriors are laying -8.5 with a total of 195.5. Two anomalies as the bettors are favoring both the underdog and the under. That being said, the deeper into the postseason, the more the public actually does bet the underdog.

Exactly 60 percent of against the spread wagers are on Cleveland today at the sportsbook with 61 percent favoring the under. A stunning 68 percent favor Cleveland to pull the upset and win outright based on moneyline wagers posted.

Duffy and Peter Loshak take a look at daily fantasy sports and sports betting tips for today in MLB.

Now to MLB, a free pick from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com

LA ANGELS (SHOEMAKER +100) Oakland (Gray)

Great pitchers on bad teams are among the best go-against situations. Oakland is 2-5 the last seven. They have a lousy .305 OBP and .368 slugging in that span.LA has won three straight. Go with home underdogs with a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start, stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season is +115.8 units including +10.6 this year and +71.3 last five years. Built on pitching and defense, Oakland is -20.6 units.In their last five games the Halos has a slugging percentage of .454 compared to .358 for the A’s.

Athletics are 15-36 in their last 51 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and 9-25 if their opponent scored two or fewer last game. Anaheim is 10-2 with Shoemaker as an underdog and 23-10 his last 33 overall. LA is 8-2 at home in the series.As great as Gray has been, Oakland is -1.3 with him. The scary thing is he cannot pitch any better. What happens when he is less than stellar?

Saturday we go 4-1. Heck we even won an extra inning game, staring my kryptonite in the face. Joe Duffy’s Picks has had winning days 9-of-12. This is the biggest all-sports portfolio since the conference tournaments in CBB. Get 11 winners in all: the NBA side and total plus three MLB Wise Guys and six Majors.
We literally have it all. If you want to be on the outside looking in, please place a few bets and keep the bookmakers in business for our clients at OffshoreInsiders.com

Thursday, June 11, 2015

Exclusive Betting Preview of Pro Gamblers Warriors-Cavs Game 4 Odds

It is Game 4 of the NBA finals odds between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors. Golden State is (-2.5) on the road with a total of 193. After checking multiple databases, sports betting experts believe this is the first time in history a team has lost two straight NBA finals games and is a road favorite at sportsbook.

Nevertheless 59 percent of bets against the spread have been placed on Golden State with a stunning 70 percent expecting an over as this total continues to plummet each game. Insofar as this contest, the side and total remain steady from the opener.Cleveland has covered 6-of-8, with the two setbacks by a combined seven. The average margin of cover is just above 10 points per game during that span, called by some the sweat barometer.Golden State has gone under 12-3 the last 15, seven by double-digits. The Warriors are still tops in the postseason in terms of net rating with 7.9. Cleveland is second at 7.2. Net rating is the difference between offensive and defensive ratings points per 100 possessions.

Spread trends (all records against the spread): Cleveland 15-3 to West.

Over/under angles:
Golden State under 7-0 off spread loss, under 10-4 road. Cleveland under 37-17 on one day rest.

Joe Duffy’s Picks continues to dominate NHL, NBA, and especially MLB at OffshoreInsiders.com
Now to some MLB trends and DFS notes for Thursday:
  • Texas 7-0 road to AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better for +11.4 units
  • Baltimore 26-6 under to AL starting pitcher with ERA of 4.00 to 4.70. That record is over the last two years
  • San Diego’s Andrew Cashner has allowed a combined 12 earned runs on 19 hits in his last two starts
  • Seattle JA Happ 3.31 ERA, including 3.09 his last five starts. He is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA in four career outings vs. Cleveland
  • Miami David Phelps at home 0-1 with a 5.50 ERA in five games
  • Angels Garrett Richards 8.01 ERA last three and struggled in last four
  • Mets Jon Niese 7.96 ERA over his last five starts
  • Milwaukee Matt Garza turning it around. Despite 5.09 ERA overall, it is 3.18 last three starts

Monday, June 08, 2015

Official Gambling Preview Cavaliers vs. Warriors

Game 3 of the NBA finals Golden State and Cleveland goes Tuesday night. Golden State is now a one-point favorite after opening up as a pick. The total is 194, down a half point from the opener at the sportsbook Golden State is favored by 71 percent of gamblers with 54 percent betting on the over.

Cleveland has covered 5-of-7, all by 9.5. Of course the most recent setback was failing in overtime getting six-points. Golden State has gone under 11-3 the last 14, seven by at least 10.5. The Warriors average 108.9 points per game to teams normally allowing 100.2. However on defense, they are not as dominant but hold teams to 1.0 point below their normal average.

Cleveland gets 102.8 points per game to teams that normally permit 99.6, while allowing 87.8 to teams earning an average 99.7.

Spread trends
(all records against the spread): Golden State 24-11 off loss. Cleveland is 14-3 to the West, but 3-8 off spread win. Golden State is 10-4 in the series.
Over/under angles: Golden State under 8-2 on one day rest. Cleveland under 36-17 with just one day rest.

Get your winning picks every day at OffshoreInsiders.com which includes from Joe Duffy’s Picks, the all-time winningest baseball handicapper ever.
Article made possible by DuffyVideo.com where you can get bar mitzvah video montages, company logos, and more.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Vegas Line Moves NBA, Baseball Betting Notes for Free Picks Sports

Joe Duffy’s Picks continues to roll and has a substantial night thanks to intel like this on today’s portfolio. We will take a look at public betting trends on tonight’s NBA but first fantasy baseball and MLB betting news and notes.

Two picks, two Wise Guys, two winners. The Hawks and Warriors lead us to yet another sweep to go to 11-5 in the NBA playoffs. The Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has another NBA side selection winner for Tuesday. Joe Duffy has written articles on SportsNetwork, Bleacher Report, and Examiner; appears on national TV and network radio, featured in Sports Betting Review videos and more.I have added three MLB winners led by a Wise Guy and at least one Dandy Dogs, which are moneyline underdogs of 140 or more. Yep that is five winners in three sports. Best sports betting picks at http://www.offshoreinsiders.com

Cards Lance Lynn has a 6.00 ERA last three starts allowing five or more runs in 2-of-3. Lynn faces Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco who has a 6.23 ERA and .908 OPS last three starts. Detroit’s Alfredo Simon has allowed 9 runs and 14 hits in his last 9.1 IP.

Cincinnati prospect Anthony DeSclafani has not gotten past fifth inning in any of his last three starts. Tampa’s Chris Archer 5-0 1.93 to the Bronx Bombers. Betting experts wonder about regression to the mean as Texas Nick Martinez had a 0.35 ERA in his first four starts but 4.22 the last two. Houston won 11 straight with Collin McHugh and he has 2.54 ERA in span. A rejuvenated Miami pitcher Dan Haren has allowed two or fewer runs in 5-of-6.

The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Chicago Bulls laying 5.5 with a total of 190. The line has stayed steady, but the total is down two points. Fifty-five percent of the betting public prefers Chicago with 71 percent investing in the over. The Los Angeles Clippers are at Houston Rockets laying 3.5 with a total of 218.5. LA only opened as a 1.5-point chalk with the first posted total at 219. A momentous margin of 71 percent are staking on the Clippers, 65 percent on the over.

Monday, May 11, 2015

Favorites to Win Preakness Stakes 2015; Order Of Kentucky Derby Finish

The odds for the 2015 Preakness Stakes are out and they look quite similar to the finish of the Kentucky Derby. American Pharoah is a 5/7 favorite to take the second leg of the Triple Crown of Thoroughbred Racing.

Much like the Run for the Roses final results, the Pimlico Race Course feature race has Dortmond and Firing Line next at 5/1. Oddsmakers do not expect the win, place, and show party to be crashed, as Materiality is the No. 4 contender at 16/1.As is always the case, the Preakness field has been greatly slimmed down from the Derby. Danzig Moon is next at 18/1, Divining Rod at 20/1, and Bodhisattva as 35/1. Getting no respect is the longest shot Tale of Verve at 50/1.

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy nailed the top four finishers in the Kentucky Derby, with the win and place horses being inverted and nailing three and four in order. He continues his years of Triple Crown and Breeders Cup domination at OffshoreInsiders.com

Wizards vs. Hawks NBA Betting Picks Preview

The Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards playoff odds for Game 4 of their best-of-seven series have been posted. Trailing two games to one, the Hawks are 4.5-point road favorites with a total of 199. The total has remained steady, but the point spread is up a full-point. Washington is again expected with be without star John Wall.The Wizards have the top net rating in the postseason at 9.2.

Net rating is the difference between offensive and defensive ratings points per 100 possessions. Atlanta is just seventh at 3.5. The Wiz are tops in offense getting 108.6 points per 100 possessions to just 104 for Atlanta. The teams are a bit closer on the defensive end with Washington allowing 99.4 points per 100 possessions to the Hawks 100.5.After a 32-10-2 start to the season, the Hawks are just 19-26 against the spread. This includes 3-8 the last 11 with four of the setbacks by at least 10.5 to the number.

Washington is 8-1 their last nine. In their last seven games, their margin of cover is 9.21. Some call this stat the sweat barometer.Washington has gone over 8-2 with seven by five or more points and five by at least 9.5, In fact three have exceeded the total by 21.5 or more.Spread trends (all records against the spread): Atlanta 3-13 Conference Semifinals games, 33-16 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, 29-14 on one day rest.Washington is 6-23 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 8-18 to Southeast division.Over/under angles: Washington over 6-0 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The series has gone over 6-of-7.

Tonight’s best sports handicapper picks Oh baby. Joe Duffy has hit 9-of-14 in the NBA and today is a beautiful one. We have Wise Guy sides on both NBA games. The intel we have will leave you speechless at OffshoreInsiders.com

Wednesday, May 06, 2015

Baseball Betting Previews With SBR Forum And Top Sports Handicapper in History

Sports gamblers have nothing short of a great card Wednesday in the NHL playoffs, NBA playoffs and MLB betting. It all starts with Joe Duffy’s Picks:

It would be an understatement to say that Wednesday night is the best night of the NBA playoffs as we have Wise Guy bets on both NBA playoff sides. You will be blown away as to why. Oh yes you will. Improve on that 6-3 NBA run. Get four MLB winners, all for night action, led by MLB Underdog of the Week. We have both NHL sides led by a Wise Guy. Without question this is one of the great all-sports betting portfolios in some time. There are a total of eight winners led by four Wise Guys in three different sports. Get the bets now at OffshoreInsiders.com

Also Stevie Vincent is 15-7 the last 22. You have to be somewhat batshit crazy if you bet without the King of Offshore Stevie Vincent. He has hit two underdogs of 131 or more along the way. Wednesday the dossier is led by a Level 5 pro baseball over/under, not to mention the biggest side and over/under bets from pro basketball. He is also up at OffshoreInsiders.com

At press time Power of 620 sports services behind every selection, the MasterLockLine has not been released. The MasterLockLine has the top plays from the top sports services in their highest ranked sports.

Tuesday, May 05, 2015

Sports Gambling Preview NBA Playoffs Hawks-Wizards

The Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks do battle in Game 2 of their best-of-seven NBA playoffs series tonight. While there is no dispute Stevie Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.com has the best bet on tonight’s contest, we break down the sports handicapping preview.

Atlanta is a 6.5-point favorite, up a half-point from the opener. The total is 198.5, which is down a half-point from the first posted total. Public money has 53 percent of bets on the underdog Wizards with 64 percent of bettors choosing the over. After getting off to a splendid spread start, the Hawks are only 18-25-2 recently after a 32-10-2 start to the season. They are 2-7 their last nine by -4.55 points per game against the spread. Washington has been a covering machine, cashing in seven straight with four of the last five by at least 11 points. Their margin of cover last five is -11.1 points per game. Washington has gone under 7-of-8 and 8-of-10, going over by an average of 13.1 in the latter span.

The Wizards have the best net rating in the postseason at +16.1. Net rating is the difference between offensive and defensive ratings points per 100 possessions. Washington has the best playoff offense at 112.2 points per 100 possessions with the Hawks in the middle at 103. However, it is two of the top five playoff defenses, Washington at No. 2 allowing a mere 96.1 points per 100 possessions, Atlanta 100.8.

Get every MLB and NBA sports handicapping pick necessary for today’s betting portfolio at OffshoreInsiders.com

Monday, April 27, 2015

Baseball Betting Tips: Third Paragraph Left Me Speechless and Will Astound You Too

So many of our top sports angles are counterintuitive. A high percentage of systems that have won at least 80 units or have a z-score of 4.5 or better involve betting on bad teams and pitchers and/or against quality teams and pitchers. These angles help us anticipate regression to the mean, isolating overachieving and underachieving teams. This advantage is heightened by the fact the public fancies betting on superior teams, hence while squares pay a premium betting overpriced squads, we get a discount on the posted sportsbook odds.

While this paradigm applies in all sports, certainly not equally. At one extreme, college football is the only team game in which mother lode conventionalities often actually favor the better-quality squad. However in baseball, the semblant paradoxes (to the commoners) are furthest magnified. There are two obvious whys and wherefores. As I have stated countless times, oddsmakers overvalue pitching, so baseball levies higher imposts in select situations than reality justifies. Furthermore oddsmakers must account for taking bets from plebeians, who are even more un-persuaded by steep moneylines than lofty pointspreads. To quote the single worst degenerate gambler I have ever known, “They don’t charge juice when the bet wins.” Those would be words to live by if a gambler hit 100 percent of bets. The sharp riposte is that in moneyline betting, bookmakers do not disburse recompense based on winning percentage.

In baseball betting, many of the most profitable gamblers in the world have winning…and I do mean, “winning” percentages of less than .500. For example if a starting pitcher has an ERA a full three runs higher than the other starting pitcher, the public will salivate at the thought of betting on the better pitcher. They would have lost 89 units if they staked on said situation every time the line was -150 or higher. Betting on the vastly inferior pitcher would have won you 20.8 units. However in the process the winning bettor would be 282-498, hitting just 36.2 percent of bets. Or to put it another way, to the aforesaid degenerate, the bookmakers does pay juice when our underdogs win.

Two terrible starting pitchers (both with ERAs of 5.00 or higher) are facing each other. It must be a higher scoring game right? So bet the over. There is one problem: such games go under at a 722-610-62 rate. Counterintuitive anticipation of mean regression proves invaluable again.
Of course, some uncultivated bettors may point out that is only 54.2 percent winners. One could make quite the living riding angles that hit better than 54 percent over nearly 1.400 games. However keep in mind, quoted stats are not our preeminent angles, just a few that demonstrate how contrarian reasoning pays dividends. All systems are only part of the preponderance of evidence before making a bet.

So how about two pitchers with ERAs of less than 2.00 going head-to-head? Did you surmise it would be wise go over instead of the knee-jerk under? You would be correct as such situations have gone over 632-548-46. At 53.6 winners, that is a lukewarm angle at best, but the extreme value is avoiding the impulsive bet to wager on two superior pitchers under. Turning that frown upside down is a substantial net gain. Please note that all quoted angles go back to 2005. Lateral thinking when applied to sports betting means vertical profits. In baseball betting, thinking outside the box translates into significant capital gains.

Getting winning intel like this every day converted to winners from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com

Saturday, April 25, 2015

MLB Betting Sports Service Guru About to Change Life For Gamblers and Ruin it For Sportsbooks

Baseball bettors tend to a gift to every sportsbook and bookmaker because of their propensity to bet on big and often losing favorites. Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com is about to change the life of gamblers with a video in which he reveals his basic secret. He then explains why MLB is more of a buyers beware for those shopping for sports services.

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